Earnings Event Engine — Researching Stock and Options Reactions to Earnings

The Earnings Event Engine is a Python-based research framework I developed to analyze how stocks and options behave around corporate earnings announcements.

The system combines announcement timing, options-implied expectations, realized stock-price reactions, and post-earnings price behavior into a reproducible research workflow.

Key capabilities include:

  • Event alignment: Correctly distinguishing before-market and after-market announcements.
  • Implied versus realized moves: Comparing what the options market anticipated with what actually happened.
  • Post-earnings analysis: Examining subsequent price behavior while preserving sample-size and evidence limitations.

The demonstration uses deterministic Apple and Microsoft examples to show the actual research pipeline.

Deterministic demo: AAPL actual gap 2.26% versus implied move 9.09%; MSFT actual gap 0.34% versus implied move 4.90%.
Two deterministic fixture events, not validated live research outcomes. AAPL: 2.26% actual gap versus 9.09% implied; MSFT: 0.34% versus 4.90%. Actual gap compares aligned pre-event close with post-event open; implied move uses the fixture call and put mids divided by its option-snapshot underlying price.

Importantly, the framework does not turn limited observations into unsupported trading signals. It preserves uncertainty and identifies when the available evidence is insufficient for a defensible conclusion.

GitHub: https://github.com/rossautomatedsolutions/earnings_event_engine

Research and demonstration purposes only. Not investment advice.

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